IMPACTO DE LA DEUDA PÚBLICA SOBERANA SOBRE EL MULTIPLICADOR FISCAL

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Publicado: ene 30, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2026.335.90931

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Leonardo Tariffi
Universitat Pompeu Fabra / Universitat de Barcelona
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1241-6527

Resumen

RESUMEN


Este estudio propone una nueva metodología para explicar el efecto de las variaciones del gasto público sobre los cambios de la producción agregada teniendo en cuenta la deuda pública soberana. Se utiliza un modelo multivariable con umbral que permite endogeneizar la variable de la deuda pública como porcentaje del producto interno bruto para determinar los cambios estructurales en la relación entre el gasto público y la producción agregada. Utilizando un valor umbral para dividir la muestra en dos conjuntos de observaciones, se muestra que al aumentar la deuda pública, el multiplicador fiscal de muy corto plazo disminuye en Bélgica, no tiene una variación significativa en Italia, incrementa en España y es negativo en el Reino Unido.


THE IMPACT OF THE SOVEREIGN DEBT ON FISCAL MULTIPLIER


ABSTRACT


This research introduces a new methodology to explain levels of aggregate production’s fluctuation when there are changes in government expenditure taking into account an increasing sovereign debt. A multivariable model with a threshold is used to endogenize the debt-to-gdp variable as a determinant of structural changes in the relationship between public spending and aggregate production. Using a threshold value to split the sample into two sets of observations, it is shown in the very short-term that as public debt increases, the fiscal multiplier decreases in Belgium, it has not a significant change in Italy, it increases in Spain, and it becomes negative in the United Kingdom.

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Cómo citar
Tariffi, L. (2026). IMPACTO DE LA DEUDA PÚBLICA SOBERANA SOBRE EL MULTIPLICADOR FISCAL. Investigación Económica, 85(335), 57–82. https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2026.335.90931

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Biografía del autor/a

Leonardo Tariffi, Universitat Pompeu Fabra / Universitat de Barcelona

I am an economist with a Master, DEA and PhD in Economics at the University of Barcelona. I have previous experiences of working in private companies, policy-making institutions and academia. At the end of my studies in Economics at the University of the Andes, I worked at the Department of Quantitative Support of the Central Bank of Venezuela and the Macroeconomic Analysis Unit corresponding to the cooperation between the Economic and Finance Advisor Office to the National Assembly of Venezuela and the Inter-American Development Bank. I also studied the ESOL programme at Kensington and Chelsea College and I obtained experience working at the Research Department of Economics (University of Barcelona), Mediterranean Action Plan (United Nation Enviromental Programmme) and the Center for International Finance (IESE Business School). I have teaching experience lecturing Decision Analysis (European University), Research Methods (University of the Andes), and Epistemology Research (UPEL – IMPM) for undergraduate and postgraduate students. I have published and reviewed in international journals. In my PhD dissertation “Essays on the exchange rate real determinants”, I focused on internal and external imbalances in the global economy and the relationship between current and capital accounts and misalignments in real exchange rates. I also followed a post doctoral program as a research fellow at the University of Pavia where I wrote my paper "A threshold multivariate model to explain fiscal multipliers with government debt" published at the journal of Econometric Research in Finance. My last affiliations are the CIDIS of the University of the Andes as a Researcher, the CIVREF as the Executive Director, the Department of Economics and Business of the Pompeu Fabra University as an Adjunct Professor, and the Department of Business of the University of Barcelona as a Substitute Professor.

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