A MODEL TO MEASURE THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VARIATIONS ON PRICES
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Abstract
The paper modifies the current input-output price models to analyze exchange rate variation effects on products price indices. In so doing, a Table Adjustment Price (TAP) model was expanded to deal with different cases of the real-world economy. Among the contributions the new model makes to the literature are its ability to distinguish between the effects of imported intermediate input and imported final goods on price indices and the capability to consider imperfect exchange rate pass-through to prices of imported goods. The results of the implementation of the model for Iran’s economy indicate that only in the case of an imperfect pass-through or a non-adjustment of one or more primary factors holders’ endowments, the increment in the exchange rate will lead to smaller increments in the price indices of the products and other relevant indices.
UN MODELO PARA MEDIR LOS EFECTOS DE LAS VARIACIONES DEL TIPO DE CAMBIO EN LOS PRECIOS
RESUMEN
Este artículo modifica los modelos de insumo-producto para analizar los efectos de la variación del tipo de cambio en los índices de precios de los productos. Para tal propósito, expandimos un modelo de una matriz de ajuste de precio para estudiar diferentes casos de la economía mundial real. Este nuevo modelo contribuye a la literatura sobre el tema al distinguir entre los efectos de los insumos intermedios importados y los de los bienes finales importados en los índices de precios, así como al considerar el traspaso imperfecto de las variaciones del tipo de cambio a los precios de los bienes importados. Los resultados de la implementación del modelo para el caso de la economía de Irán muestran que sólo en el caso de un traspaso imperfecto o en el de un no ajuste de uno o más de los factores primarios de las dotaciones de los agentes económicos, el aumento en el tipo de cambio conducirá a incrementos más pequeños en los índices de precios de los productos y en otros índices relevantes.
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