CRECIMIENTO IMPULSADO POR LOS SALARIOS EN MÉXICO: UN ANÁLISIS DE REGRESIÓN UMBRAL
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Abstract
En este artículo proponemos que la actividad económica de México puede estimularse cuando los salarios progresan en relación directa con la productividad laboral y las tasas de inflación objetivo. Para ello, aplicamos regresiones de umbral para mostrar que, después de un cierto valor, los salarios no son inflacionarios en absoluto y que, si la productividad laboral aumenta, los niveles de ocupación o empleo aumentan. Entonces, esto conlleva a un aumento en la actividad económica (considerando otras variables, a saber: los costos unitarios comparativos del trabajo en la industria manufacturera, las condiciones críticas de ocupación —precariedad—, la tasa de interés interbancaria de equilibrio y el índice de tipo de cambio real). Mostramos esto para la economía mexicana con datos mensuales del periodo 2007/01-2019/05.
WAGE-LED GROWTH IN MEXICO: A THRESHOLD REGRESSION ANALYSIS
ABSTRACT
In this article we propose that the Mexican economic activity can be boosted when there are progressive wages in direct relation to labor productivity and targeted inflation rates. To this purpose, we apply threshold regressions to show that, after a certain threshold value, wages are not inflationary at all and that, if labor productivity increases, occupation or employment levels increase. Then, this leads to an enhancement in economic activities (controlling for other variables, namely: comparative unit costs of labor in the manufacturing industry, critical employment conditions —precariousness—, the equilibrium interbank interest rate and the real exchange rate index). This is shown for the Mexican economy with monthly data during the period 2007/01-2019/05.Article Details
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